Climate model projections compared to observations

Since we have been periodically posting updates (e.g. 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016) of model output comparisons to observations across a range of variables, we have now set up this page as a permanent placeholder for the most up-to-date comparisons. We include surface temperature projections from 1981, 1988, CMIP3, CMIP5, and satellite products (MSU) from CMIP5, and we will update this on an annual basis, or as new observational products become available. For each comparison, we note the last update date.

Global mean surface temperature anomalies

Hansen et al (1981)

Original discussion (figure courtesy of Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Hansen et al. (1981)). Observations are the GISTEMP LOTI annual figures and 5 year mean. Last updated: 8th April 2017.

Read more:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/climate-model-projections-compared-to-observations/